03 мар Thus far, this is just a point of likelihood concept
Of the replacing from inside the (1), i have:
It illustration of Bayes' Theorem works together with the easy circumstances where one has a couple of hypotheses H and you can J which can be collectively private and as you thorough, and you can in which one is shopping for \(\Pr(H \middle Age)\), which is, the possibility you to H holds true given facts Elizabeth. Just what it exemplory case of Bayes' Theorem do is actually provide you to which have a means of calculating you to definitely probability, provided one to knows, firstly, \(\Pr(H)\) and \(\Pr(J)\)-which is, the fresh an effective priori logical likelihood of \(H\) and you may \(J\)-while having, second, \(\Pr(E \mid H)\) and you will \(\Pr(E \mid J)\)-that's, the logical likelihood of \(E\) offered, correspondingly, only \(H\) and simply \(J\).
Nevertheless now Draper brings up two substantive states. The very first is that the a beneficial priori odds of brand new theory regarding indifference isnt lower than new a beneficial priori probability of theism, so as that you will find
Draper's second substantive claim is that the conjunction regarding offres on the satisfaction and you will aches to which Draper relates, and you will that is depicted by the \(O\)' is far more probably be real whether your hypothesis off indifference is true than simply if theism is valid. Therefore we provides
However, provided \(\Pr(T)\) and \(\Pr(O \middle T)\) commonly comparable to no-which is seriously very economical-(5) and you will (6) should be rewritten as
Therefore we feel the results that, given the details about satisfaction and serious pain summarized because of the \(O\)', theism is more apt to be incorrect rather than getting genuine.
